COE so high now, should I wait for it to drop before buying?

Question

Need to change my car soon, current one COE expiring. Everyone says COE will come down when quota increases. Should I wait it out or just bite the bullet? Scared I wait then it goes even higher.

Nurse Kak Nora · Accepted Answer

Nobody can time COE, I learned this the expensive way. It's a bidding system driven by quota and demand, and while quota is projected to increase in coming cycles (which should ease prices), 'should' is not 'will'. My practical take: don't buy based on prediction, buy based on need and your budget ceiling. Set a max bid/price you're comfortable with and stick to it, if the market's above that, keep your current car running or go without. Steps: 1) check if renewing your current COE (PQP) is cheaper than a new car, 2) get the actual PQP figure, sometimes renewing 5-10 years beats buying, 3) if buying, consider a slightly older/smaller car in a different COE category. Verify current COE/PQP figures on the LTA/One Motoring site since they move every bidding exercise.

Poly Lecturer Shirley · Answer

Analysts and forum experts have been confidently predicting 'COE will drop soon' for literally years, and they've been wrong plenty. The quota cycles genuinely do matter and more supply is scheduled to come through, so easing is plausible, but treat any price drop as a bonus you didn't count on, not the foundation of your plan. If you build your decision around a prediction and it doesn't happen, you're stuck without a car and poorer in nerves. Go check LTA's actually-released quota numbers yourself rather than trusting dealer sales talk, dealers have an incentive to tell you whatever closes the sale today. Decide on your need and budget, not the crystal ball.

BTO Newlywed Jia Hui · Answer

I waited a solid 8 months for COE to 'drop' because everyone in my group chat was confident it would, and in that time it went UP, not down, then I bought anyway at a worse price. The waiting cost me more in stress, uncertainty and eventually a higher premium than any saving I was hoping for. My hard-won lesson: if you genuinely need the car now, decide the maximum you're willing to pay, and once the market's within that, just go and don't look back. Trying to catch the bottom of an unpredictable bidding market is a mug's game, plenty of smarter people than me have failed at it too. Need trumps timing.

Auntie Lay Hoon Wet Market · Answer

Look into renewing your existing COE (the PQP route) instead of scrapping the car, this is the option people forget in the panic. If your current car is still in good mechanical shape, paying the prevailing quota premium to extend its COE by 5 or 10 more years can be dramatically cheaper than buying a whole new car in this market. I did exactly this on a well-maintained car I liked and saved a fortune versus replacing it. Do the sums: get the current PQP figure, add expected maintenance for the extension years, and compare against the total cost of a new car including a fresh sky-high COE. For many people, renewing wins comfortably right now.

COE so high now, should I wait for it to drop before buying?

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